Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks 11/07

Tiny Nick's Gambling Picks 11/07 By Nick Hamaty - November 7, 2026 Locks NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars) Rice/North Texas Over (57.5): 3:00 PM CT on ESPNU There are some ridiculous over teams in college football this season, and North Texas is one of the wildest. At 7-1 to the over, the Mean Green are tied for the best record of any team that’s played 8 games, and have the second-highest plus/minus to the total, going over by 14 points on average. That’s what you get with an offense that has scored 35 or more in 7 of their games, and a defense that has given up 39 or more in 5 games. This is going to be another, as they face a Rice team that can’t stop anything when they face offenses of UNT’s caliber. But the Owls also have the kind of dual-threat QB that has given the Mean Green fits, so they’ll be able to contribute plenty as this game flies over the adjusted total. West Virginia/Texas Tech Over (58.5): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN Texas Tech made the right decision in benching Will Hammond for Tommy Castellanos last week, and I expect the Red Raiders to stick with their more dynamic option tonight. Castellanos brings more mobility and experience, which was on display as Tech put up 34 points against a good defense. They will not be facing a good defense here, as West Virginia checks in at 125th in points allowed this season. The Mountaineers might be off the bye here, but that’s not going to fix the country’s most generous pass defense. Tech should be able to carve them up as they look to get statement wins after a bad loss two weeks ago, and no mercy means lots of points incoming. West Virginia can score though, as their elite run game will finally give Tech a test on the ground. With the Mountaineers one of the 7-1 teams to the over this season it’s easy to like their games as automatic bets to the over, but I don’t like where the standard total is sitting in a dead zone here so I’ll adjust it down through some key numbers. Texas St/Oregon St Over (63.5): 9:30 PM CT on The CW More overs insanity in this matchup, as these two teams are a combined 13-3 to the over this season. That explains the total north of 70, which isn’t ideal for taking the straight up over so I’m more inclined to adjust it down here. Oregon State are the ones who should turn this into a shootout on their home field, as the Beavers are the 3rd-most pass-happy team in the country and I don’t think Texas State can stop them. The Bobcats prefer to run the ball, and that happens to be Oregon State’s bigger vulnerability on defense. But Texas State got the passing game going last week in their 46-45 thriller of a shootout at Boise, so they’re capable of airing it out and going shot for shot. Both teams have a history and pattern of getting into track meets against certain opponents, and that tendency should be on display for a rebranded Pac-12 after dark barn burner. NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Connor Weigman Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on FOX Houston is in a major bounce back spot here. The last time we saw the Cougars they were losing a weird one at Utah, and they’ve had a bye week to stew over that loss which probably keeps them out of any CFP discussion. But if they’re going to sneak back into that discussion, they need statement performances and that can start right here. They get a Cincinnati team with one of the worst pass defenses in the country, ranked 135th in yards allowed through the air at 298.6 per game. That alone makes this yardage prop a little strange, especially with Weigman going over this number in the games where Houston has needed to air it out. While I’m not sure they need to, I think they’ll want to air it out and get back on track today, and this kind of opponent on national TV is the perfect spot for Weigman to go wild. NCAA Football (1 Unit) Boise St/Colorado St Over 68.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on USA Network Did I mention there are some ridiculous over teams in this season of college football? Well it simply doesn’t get any more insane than what Colorado State is doing to totals this year. The Rams are tied with North Texas and a few others at 7-1 to the over, and are making oddsmakers look foolish by going over at 19.9 points on average. The only reason they’re not 8-0 to the over is because they played the country’s best under team last week, and that game still got to 45 points. For CSU to let Utah State’s pitiful offense carve them up for 31 points is just ridiculous, and shows how bad this defense is that checks in at dead last in plenty of categories. Boise State can torch this defense even with Maddux Madsen out, as backup Max Cutforth is experienced and can rely on the elite run game. But on a beautiful evening in Fort Collins, this CSU offense led by gunslinging QB Hauss Hejny should be able to easily throw it all over the yard. The Boise defense is tired from last week and vulnerable on the road, so this game is going well into the 70’s or beyond. Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Dylan Riley Over 149 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via Fanduel) About that elite run game, it’s led by Riley who is 5 yards shy of leading the country in rushing yards. He’s carving teams up for 6.4 yards per carry, and averaging 142.7 yards per game against non-power conference opponents. And Riley hasn’t gotten to face anything close to this level of defensive incompetence, as CSU allows the most yards per game and carry in the country. Boise will need to lean on him since they have a backup QB going today, and I’m expecting a monster game. NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars) Boise St/Colorado St Over (61.5): 5:00 PM CT on USA Network Let’s get another teaser in here for this epic slate of night games, and start it with the epic shootout we should see in Fort Collins. If I love this game to go over 68.5, then I’d sure better love it to go over a touchdown less with this teaser play. This can also act as a little bit of insurance in case Boise’s backup QB struggles somehow, or the Broncos suddenly clamp down defensively. But I just don’t see any of that happening as the numbers for these teams are simply eye-popping and point to nothing but an over. Iowa/Northwestern Under (49.5): 6:30 PM CT on FOX The starting quarterback for Northwestern, Aidan Chiles, was announced out for this game and the total didn’t move. I think that’s a signal of how much the Iowa defense is trusted to do its thing in this game, and slow down a Northwestern offense that was already very run-heavy. We’ll see how much veteran backup Nicco Marchiol is allowed to throw, but the Wildcats came into this game with the 17th-highest rushing play percentage and I don’t see that changing. That will send Northwestern into the teeth of an Iowa defense that is top-5 against the run this season, only allowing 2.5 yards per carry. It also helps keep the clock moving in a game featuring two teams that are 101st and 111th in seconds per play, so nobody’s in a hurry tonight. The Northwestern defense has also been tough at home this season, and Iowa’s offensive struggles continue no matter what, so getting this total up through the key numbers around 7 total touchdowns is good value. Air Force/Army Under (51): 6:30 PM CT on CBS Some executive at CBS is pretty dumb for trying to put this game up against the likes of Miami/Notre Dame and Georgia/Ole Miss, but at least it features a compelling betting opportunity. It’s a service academy game, plain and simple, which have trended at about 80% to the under in recent years. That’s why this total has cratered, and with the tease I’m restoring it to the opening number where I feel a little better. But you’d have to go back to 2013 to find a meeting in this rivalry that had more than 43 points, and that should be the case again tonight. Maybe if Air Force QB Liam Szarka hadn’t been lost for the year this total would be reachable, but your typica